It turns out that there is a very thin line separating speculation and
investing.
According to Wikipedia, “speculating is the assumption of risk in
anticipation of gain but recognising a higher than average possibility of loss.
The term speculation implies that a business or investment risk can be analyzed
and measured, and its distinction from the term investment is one of the degree
of risk. It differs from gambling, which is based on random
outcomes.”
Also it turns out that there is no time frame to speculation. So I can buy
and hold a stock for 10 years and it can still be a speculative investment.
Especially if it is highly risky. Like SIVs (Special Investment Vehicles),
Lehman’s Minibonds Notes, DBS High Notes etc
At the same time, speculation actually helps out in the real economy. It
spreads the risk for the producers as speculators may buy say, corn crops in
advance and the famer will be more willing to plant more corn crops and have
more money to develop his land with advance money from the speculator.
The side effect of speculation was observed in the last financial meltdown in
2007-2009 where huge speculative positions in mortgage markets caused a build up
in a property bubble which imploded with drastic consequences.
However, if you refer to “The
Intelligent Investor
” by Benjamin Graham, he puts the difference between an
investor and a speculator into quite clear and distinct terms. He says:
“An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises
safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these
requirements are speculative.”
And in the first chapter after introduction, he spends a whole chapter
differentiating between the two and defining what an investor is. He classes
these people as speculators:
| People who short stocks |
Every non-professional who operates on margin (using
leverage) |
| Everyone who buys a “hot” common stock issue (ie your
IPOs) |
Involved in trading in the market- ie high turnover of
stocks in a short time |
In the book, Graham also states that speculation is not illegal nor is it
morally wrong. In fact he states that there is an element of speculation in
every investment.
Without bearing some sort of risk, there isn’t any returns to speak of.
However, if you look at what happened in the housing market in United States,
where ordinary people had two or three mortgages at its height and thinking that
ever higher prices it will go on forever, you will be maybe draw parallel with
what is happening in Singapore and Asia?
So what are you? More investor or more speculator?
Sources:
1. Wikipedia on Speculation
versus Investment
2. The
Intelligent Investor
by Benjamin Graham
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This
is a post from our guest writer Lemizeraq who runs the website Financial
Freedom SG. The original post can be found here.
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